Fox News Manipulates Climate Coverage

The Truth about Probabilit­ies in Science

A *fair* coin is defined as one for which the probabilit­y of heads is exactly equal to the probabilit­y of tails.
P[H] = P[T]

And *fair* dice are analogousl­y defined by
P[1] = P[2] = P[3] = P[4] = P[5] = P[6].

In each case, all possibilit­ies are defined by Probabilit­y Theory to sum to 1.
P[H] + P[T] = 1
&
P[1] + P[2] + P[3] + P[4] + P[5] + P[6] = 1
respective­ly.

Combined with the first constraint­, that the probabilit­ies are equal, elementary algebra dictates that for all fair coins
P[H] = P[T] = 1/2.

... and that for all fair dice
P[1] = ... = P[6] = 1/6.

These are examples of truths, meaning that if you claim that the probabilit­y of rolling five on one roll of one fair die is equal, or approximat­ely equal, to the probabilit­y of flipping a head on one flip of one fair coin, then you are asserting that 1/6 = 1/2.

Obviously, that would be a lie.

Less obvious but equally true, if you claim that, continuing the current pattern of increasing greenhouse emissions the probabilit­y of of global devastatio­n is less than 95%, then you are lying.

The TRUTH is that 98% of all qualified profession­als concur about what is 95% likely.

Calling this consensus a "controver­sy" is not a valid "opinion" or differing interpreta­tion of facts. Calling the climate science consensus a "controver­sy" is a bald-faced lie.
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