I cannot predict very well what my next hand at blackjack will be, but (if we limit the aces to a single value, anyway) I can tell you with perfect accuracy the average value of all complete decks of cards in the world, due to the Law of Large Numbers. Likewise, if I try to predict individual coin flips, my success rate should be only about 50%. But, I can predict with perfect accuracy that the success rate of "heads" for all flips of all fair coins is 50% +/- a tiny fraction of a percent which is a function of the inverse of the total number of flips, meaning that long-term predictions are MORE reliable than short term predictions.
Ironically, *because* weather is deterministic rather than random like the two examples above, and because its determinism is based on multiple drivers, forecasting climate is more complicated than forecasting the long term averages of flipping coins or picking (or dealing) cards from a shuffled deck.
About Climate Change
Read the Article at HuffingtonPost
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